Nov28th What's happening

It seems my monthend sell off came true last week but not to the extent I had hoped. This week nifty is rebounding.

I sold one of my put options at 10700 with a 25% profit. Missed selling last week when it was 100% profit. Also lost the put options placed at 10100 towards begin of month. Lesson learnt it even when we know of a sell off coming, wait for the buys to weak before buying a put option.

As of now Nifty is rebounding. But don't see any major buy trend yet anywhere. I am guessing this will make a major sell off post Dec 12th after election results are out.

Depending on how month of Nov. closes, will buy  december put option is it looks fine.

Monday Nov 26th

NSE shows a continuing sell. I don't see it turning around at least for a day. On weekly level the buy strength is almost at peak so shows weak buy. With November being a sell and it began at 10386, I think sell will prevail on Next week beginning on 26th. Lets see.

1. DeepInd is another temporary high at end of this week. Shows fall by next week. But is a hold on Monday.
2. DHampurSug is soft peaking at weekly although Monday shows a reluctant push with not much strength. Month began at 158 with weak buy, it may end below 158 and by end of quarter deep lows. But we need to take it slowly and see how it develops.
3. Balrampurchin shows a sharp down on next week. Monday itself is a sell. November began at 107 with weak buy and its already below that. This too might see sharp down to december.
4. HMVL is a sell on Monday and week shows weak too. HMVL was a temporary low on November start and October Start at 129 and 148 respectively and today it is 127 below those two. It will be interesting to see the lower levels penetrate to a deep selling or higher levels hold and rise by december early. I don't see a change in weak trend yet. Although I foolishly bought some based on monthly trends.
5. Cosmofilm seems stabilizing so far. Has a weakness, not major to next week. Month began at 255 but buy trend was broken as we are at 226. But Oct end of 218 should hold. If it does, we will see how december looks.
6. JPassociat shows weakness monday and on week. We could see lows to 6.6 and 6.4. Don't see trend change yet.
7. TCS shows hold on monday but weekly level shows some weakness. No major trend break yet. Monthly and Oct sell has come true, down from 1938 and 2183 respectively and now at 1812. Does this show rupee will keep gaining strength? Interesting.
8. COalIndia is a hold on Monday and may see some positive next week and like predicted before to sell, it is breaking down below and may fall further.
9. Hindustanlevel is a sell. Weekly sell has become true, we might see sharp sell below 1621.
10. GodrejInd is soft peaking at daily.
11. HDFCBank temp low of Nov from 1911 came true at 2005 now. But there is trend change coming. It is just below Oct price 2006 where there is a strong sell coming and december about to start. Its a sell.
12. Navkarcorp has a showing a turn around at week with Monday sell. Not strong buy yet.

Indian Airlines in trouble -- bankruptcy, defaults loom

Looks like Indian Airlines from Govt. to private are all in trouble and broke. Jet Airways will probably go bankrupt, can't may salaries, fly planes and Govt. has asked Tatas to buy it.

Indigo reported loss and Spice Jet and others in hard time too.

And lets not talk about perpetual parasite and Babu Airline AirIndia.

The biggest and latest trouble is sky high taxes our Delhi Netas charge on fuel. When oil prices collapsed in 2014, Netas and Babus who were all about "market price is good", decided steal that price gain from consumers and instead hiked fuel taxes greatly for Govt. Budget. Now that price has recovered and rupee has fallen too(which our Delhi netas deeply wanted), consumers including airlines in deep trouble and want tax cuts but the Govt. is already bankrupt and can't cut. So its a stalemate.

Its so bad now they can't even pay fuel bills and want unsecured credit from Govt. owned oil companies. Here.

The question as I said before is who goes bankrupt first. The airlines first or Govt. and Airlines together. I bet is on second one.

Nov 21st, what's ahead

Nifty shows strong negative. As predicted before market open yesterday Nifty turned downs strongly and had sustained selling.

Nov 21st should be a strong sell as well.

Nov19th and the week ahead.

After a very positive Monday, Nifty has soft Peaked and is turning down. That would match the monthly sell predicted at begin of Nov.
I bought some put options early on which are at loss. Might recover money if this goes well. Probably no profit. Need to wait a little when Buys are done or peaked when buying put option.

1. GVKPIL sell reversal.
2. Coalindia hold for today but a weekly sell.
3. Hindustan Unilevel a sell.
4. ITC localized buy today but otherwise sell all levels.
5. Asian paints is sell.
6. Lupin hold today but has multiday sell.
7. Rallis some positive showing. Weakness at monthly.
8. TCS sell.
9. HMVL may be up today but is weekly sell. Will be time to buy in near future but not yet.
10. L&T Infotech hold today but sell is at longer term.
11. ICICIPruli localized sell. Buy at longer term. Don;t buy yet.
12. Tatamotors check.----
13. Cosmofilms hold today and weekly sell but longer buy. Not buy yet.
14. SBI sell.
15. ONGC, NMDC, GMDCLTD, IDEA sell.
16. Dhamputsug hold. Balrampurchin is a sell. Both Sugar stocks may be turning down by end of month.
17. Aban offshore, Deepind and GMR sell.
18. JPAssociat hold.
19. HDFCBank buy, but shd fall more by year end.
20. Recltd localized sell.
21. Yesbank weak.
22. Starpaper sell.
23. Navkarcorp hold.
24. Baja Finance, Ashok Leyland hold.
25. Hero motors is sell.
26. GreavesCotton sell.

Destruction of LIC.

LIC is losing market share hand over fist to the private sector—this at a time the insurer has willingly saddled itself with IDBI Bank.

Everytime Netas need money to fill stinking holes in a govt. Bank or buy some dying govt. company that no one else will touch... They manhandle LIC and take its money.

With lowest solvency ratio in whole market .. LIC is now stripped to the bones.

The question is at what point LIC dies.

Major Global Colling on the way. Global Warming is nothing but a Tax fraud.

Here Nasa says Global Mini Ice Age on the way as the real controller of weather the Sun goes to sleep. Just like Maunder minimum.

https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/30214-nasa-sees-climate-cooling-trend-thanks-to-low-sun-activity

And here, they admit major calculation error in scare mongering people about Global Warming.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/14/math-error-scientists-admit-mistakes-led-to-alarming-results-in-major-global-warming-study/

It is amazing how the whole global warming is nothing but a giant biggest scam. Nothing but a way to tax people and businesses more and power grab by Govt.s and green terrorists most of whom are just useful idiots but have very powerful and rich backers who just want half of us dead.

Cooling to reduce crop production and cause famine. I am thinking what stocks to buy.

Nov 16th What's up.

Nifty again a hold. No major trend for today, lets see.

1. Coalindia is a sell. I already sold my rest of coalindia yesterday.
2. Byke is a possible buy. A reaction buy, no major trend.
3. ITC on hold
4. TCS is a sell.
-5. HMVL is a buy
6. ICICIPrulife is a sell.
-7. Tatamotors possible buy
9. Cosmofilms possible buy
10. Idea is more sell.
11. Sugar stocks sell. its a correction, not change in trend.
12. Deepind should sell now, its way up. When falls then buy.
-13. JPAssociat should reverse to buy.
-14. GammonInfra is a buy.
15. Navkarcorp shd be a buy, getting a bottom but not seeing a major buy yet. Can buy some.
-16. Daawat rice may be turning around. But wait till end of November.
17. Greavescotton is a sell now.
18. DHFL a buy. May turn around but not sure.

Nov15th predict

NSEI is directionless and hold for today. Matches weekly hold too. Lets see.

1. COalindia beginning of a possible sell.
2. ITC sell
3. Godrej-CP/IND hold or mildly positive.
4. skmeggprod sell
5. Rallis a possible bottom soon. Trend change wait. Not yet a buy.
6. TCS/INFY hold
7. HMVL again at a nice low and is a good buy. Just wary about Nov sell off coming.
8. Cosmofilms waiting for trend change to buy.
9. IDEA is a sell.
10. Sugar stocks are sell.
11. Deepind sell
12. HDFCBank trend change, wait.
13. RECLTD weakening.
14. Navkar localized sell.
15. Bajajfin and Ashokley hold and Heromoto slight positive.

Nov 14th End of Day.

The hold prediction held nicely. Nifty is down 0.06%. In fact the weekly hold is holding fine too. Last week end was 10585 and after Wedday its 10576. Barely moved.

I am not sure what comes next week with a November sell that hasn't happened yet. Should be big volatility. RBI meeting happens on Nov 19th Monday as well. So lets see if sell happens and how bad.

Bought some more navkarcorp. Stock closed below my buy price. I still see some more weakness in it. It seems while it's bottoming, it hasn't bottomed yet.  Same for HMVL.

Nov14th What's ahead

Looks like the hold for the week is still holding good. After bounce of yesterday and fall of Monday, Nifty hasn't gone anywhere. Today shows hold too.

1. TCS shows a buy but is at monthly limit and so thats a weakness.
2. HMVL may see some localized sell.
3. Tata motors is a sell localized.
4. Cosmofilms has a weekly sell that has already happened. So its a wait and hold. Has strength till december end.
5. Deepind is a sell now.
6. JPAssociat a buy.
7. HDFCBank a localized buy.

Nov 13th what's ahead.

Nifty showing a sell trend now. The reversal to the downside I said will happen in second half of Nov. seems to have begun. This might override the weekly hold we have. Lets see.

1. TCS is showing a buy today but caution is needed as it has weakness for the month and till December.
2. Coalindia heading for a direction change probably to the downside. Not confirmed yet but good to sell some.
3. Hindustan Unilever is a sell.
4. ITC as said before also is a sell.
5. Rallis is probably bottoming. But not confirmed yet. Wait.
6. HMVL continues a buy. My yesterday's bottoming prediction came real nice as it went up even as overall market was down badly. Will but some more today.
7. Tatamotors is a buy. It is probably bottoming.
8. Cosmofilms has bottomed. As stated previously is a buy. Although as a weakness at local level. Will buy some more.
9. SBI showing weakness.
10. Oil and ONGC in conffused state.
11. Idea is a sell.
12. Sugar stocks have localized weakness and if fall will be good time to buy as they bottomed long back.
13. Deepind has weekly weakness. But when falls will be time to buy.
14. JPAssociat is a buy,
15. HDFCBank as stated is a sell. This one is full scale sell.
16. Navkarcorp is bottoming. Is beginning a buy. 5%  possible?
17. Bajaj FInance shows trend change. Wait. Has longer term sell.
18. Heromotors has localized sell.
19. Greaves Cotton has major sell possible.

Nov 12th Week Start initial prediction.

1. Nifty is preparing for a direction change. We probably have peaked for the month. Monday Nov 12th is a minor buy and the whole week after that is a hold for a direction change. The new direction is most probably to the down.
2. CoalIndia as said in last post is heading for a fall. It still shows a Monday hold and Weekly fall. I have exited half on Friday and will wait for now.
3. ITC is a sell on Monday but is a weekly buy. But as stated before is a long term sell till year end.
4. TCS show some strength this week but has a multi week weakness.
5. Tatamotors is heading for a turn around to the way up. My Nov 1st buy from 179 was nice and now at 195. Its a small buy now but no strong buy yet.
6. Cosmofilms shows weekly weakness. Possible trend change on Monday. Longer term buy.
7. Deepind is reaching a localized high. Should fall this week and going forward to a low. But still has a rising trend by end of December.
8. Dhampursug shows weekly sell but Monday buy.
9. HDFCBank is a sell.
10. Navkarcorp shows signs of turning around and probably has bottomed. But wait to see confirmation.
11. Hindustan Media HMVL is bottoming. Waiting for a confirmation of moving up.

Nov 9th Weekending Status

Finally sold my Starpaper, Dhampursug and DeepInd and got about 9-11% return.

Post Diwali special trading, my Algo showed this on Thursday Nov 8th and today many of them were confirmed by market.
1. Coalindia is entering a weakness and I sold half of my holding.
2. ITC probably beginning a major slow decline.
3. Asian paint a reaction bounce. No major trend buy.
4. Cipla reaction buy only.
5. icicipruli is a localized sell.
6. Cosmofilms bottoming and beginning a rise trend. Buy at M/W and Temp low from Oct. I bought it today.
7. Same for JPAssociat. But sadly I didn't buy and it it went up 3-4% today. I like my algo!
8. Gammoninfra needs more confirmation first before a rise. So not yet. Same with Cybermedia.
9. Yesbank is a reaction bounce. No buy.

My Week starting buy signal for Nifty came true. Week started at 10553 and ending slightly above it today 10585.

Daily signal today was hold and nifty ended barely low -0.12%. So far it looks as planned.

We will see how next week is once data is ready on Sunday. As we are nearing mid of November, we should begin to see weakness as I predicted before.

Our Govt. is Bankrupt and wants 3.16 lakh crore from RBI Reserves.

I have stated this previously also. The govts. both at center and states are bankrupt. Running high deficits and about to enter a interest rate rising cycle with record high debt.


After the disastrous demonetization and a hastily done GST, Govt. is finally realizing that it is badly in the need of some money. Demonetization killed a large section of informal economy who provided jobs for people which were productive unlike the Govt. employees that netas create.

By the way Congress did many demonetizations before BJP. All were failures. Yet they keep repeating this insanity.

After relaxing deficit mandate last year, Govt. thought there will be a giant economic growth and their tax boom which didn't happen. What happened is that interest rates are rising on Govt. bonds. With stock market in correction phase, the plans to sell house silverwares aka disinvestment of PSU companies isn't going as planned. They have already milked ONGC and others of as much cash and dividend as possible. And still not getting close to budget figures. So now they want 3.16 lakh crores from RBI Reserves. 

As everyone knows this is a one time transfer as next year RBI won't have that money again but spending plans of netas won't reduce. So all this does is transfer the bankruptcy to next year.

From an investor point of view, I think it doesn't matter if Govt takes that money from RBI or not. We know they are bankrupt because.

1. Revenue isn't growing as much as spending.
2. Loan burden is already high by Indian standards of past sovereign debt crisis.
3. Interest rates are rising.
4. Monsoon wasn't that great. Ironically when it was better in 2016 farmers lost due to demonetization chaos.

and to top it, there are three large risks.

5. Economic downturn. I think last qtr GDP massaged figures were the peak.
6. Very sharp rise in US Dollar.
7. BJP's loss of absolute majority in coming election.

These are fairly assured outcomes and when that happens the stress will quickly transfer to Govt. Bonds and Rupee. Large rupee fall will help the stocks. So get ready for some wild swings. Foreign mutual funds are good options too, especially those investing in US markets as get dollar exposure.


The only question is when does this happen and I think we should see a glimpse of this in december state elections this year. Lets see. 

Nov 6th status

Nifty shows a sell for tomorrow.

I finally sold Dhampursug and Starpaper yesterday at a high and made 12% and 9% respectively. Afterwards, each of those stocks fell. We shd see more weakness at sugar stocks. There is still a long term buy so a correction here will be nice entry point, but not yet.

TCS and INFY show more sell tomorrow.

SBI shows signs of buy and still carries risk of sell. No trend buy yet i think.

NMDC shows signs of correction.

DEEP industries shows sign of correction but is buy if it reaches 90s.

HDFCBank is a hold for now but has 3 months sell.

Trident is a local sell. If gets a good correction then is a buy at 50s.

Daawat is looking like a short sell but a monthly Nov buy but price has already gone up able safety level.

Week Starting Nov 5th

Nifty for Monday Nov 5th shows weakness but shows some strength at weekly level.  This is understandable since US elections are this week and until its over not sure where markets will go. But I see weakness for whole of November, especially second half, as stated in last post too.

Dhampur Sugar is soft peaking at weekly level, although might see some rise on Monday. May be better to sell some and buy after a little correction.

Starpaper is reaching a local high but no sign of weakness yet. Perhaps good to take some profit here.

TCS might be getting into a local low and shows weekly strength.

Rest of stock details for the week to be available after Monday is done.

Month starting November 2018

Weekly sell recommendation for this week did not hold as the rebound from low was strong which matches my November rebound for the first half of month.

November from existing trend is a Sell for the month but we are seeing a rebound from October collapse. It will be interesting if we can see the rebound is strong to break that trend of Sell. We also have a large Sell for 3 months from October. So I think it is unlikely the rebound will exceed 10930 for nifty which is Sept 30th nifty.

So in short, November is an initial rebound and weakness in second half.

Today Nov 2nd shows move higher which is happening as I write this.

1. TCS still shows a monthly sell for November but the quarterly sell was very well done as a deep low. So far I don't see any major collapse and might consolidate and we will see some buy at this stage going forward. I bought some TCS at the low in october and that is holding well.

2. Starpaper buy for October went exceedingly well. With a buy from Sep30 at 159, its above 180 now and survived October collapse very well. I bought some that is 13% up and it is not time to sell yet.

3. CoalIndia had a reaction high at the begin of week which I didn't notice. So no wonder that it fell from 281 to 261. Its interesting how that coinciding with Govt. plan to sell stake at base price of 266. Don't see any major fall here. Monthly level is a buy.

4. Hindustan Unilever shows a quarterly sell which hasn't happened yet. And a monthly November sell too. Lets see how it goes in November.

5. ITC quarterly sell came true from 300 to 277. Shows November sell too, lets see. No major buy here.

6. Asian Paints fell as qtr level predicted. Might see some rebound from low but don't see major buy.

7. Lupin hasn't fallen much, see some strength so its a hold.

8. SKMEGGPROD is a sell at all levels.

9. L&T Infotech quarterly sell went well so far from 1917 to 1765. Should see some reaction buy. No solid buy trend yet.

10. Tatamotors shd see some reaction buy. May be bottoming soon, but don't see major buy signal yet.

11. Cyient may see reaction buy. No solid buy yet.

12. SBI qrtrly buy went well so far and shows a monthly sell.

13. ONGC shows mostly sell. Only qrtrly buy which isn't strong.

14. Idea is a sell with short term buy.

15. Sugar stocks are a monthly buy and sell is weak may be localized.

16. Deepindustries buy at qrtr has gone well so far. No major buy/sell now, just hold.

17. HDFCBank qrtrly sell gone fine so far. Mostly hold now with November showing weak buy with continuing sell pressure.

18. RECLtd qtrly buy went well 98 to 118 now. Sadly I didn't buy it. Consolidation now

19. Yesbank shows monthly sell with short term buy before it.

20. Trident is buy at all levels and now at 66.

21. Navkarcorp rebound from low but nothing major.

22. Persistent qrtrly peaking came true, down from 788 to now 559. Monthly still sell with local buy.

23. VSTTiller is confused for month with sell at qtr which hasn't happened yet. Lets see.

24. Rice stocks qtrly hold with a monthly buy.

25. Bajaj finance is a sell at qrtly and monthly and see no buy signal yet.

26. Ashok Leyland is a monthly buy but weak and qrtly sell.

27. Heromotor reaching a low at all levels may see a local buy. Don't see trend change yet.

28. Greaves cotton is a monthly sell but quarterly still showing buy so major collapse I think.

China Real Estate Shakeout

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-31/china-s-100-000-developers-are-bracing-for-a-giant-shakeout?srnd=premium-asia

For developers, it all amounted to a near-limitless business opportunity, and many went deep into debt to finance giant projects that often sold out in hours, with would-be buyers in some cases storming sales offices

And in the next few years, developers face a mammoth wall of bond maturities.

“Very likely the act of deleveraging will kill a bunch of players,” said Sean Zhang, Cushman & Wakefield Inc.’s China head of financial advisory services. “Lots of companies have found the funding doors completely shut. I’ve started to tell some clients: don’t bother financing, you’d better sell.”

The developer lurched into full-blown crisis this year, defaulting on bond payments and having its stock halted after a 62 percent plunge since Jan. 1

“Sentiment is taking a turn. The market just started to feel winter.”
— With assistance by Emma Dong

Will India be different because we have Modiji? I don't think so!