Saturday, December 1, 2018

July-Sep 2018 GDP growth slows to 7.1%, Netas breach deficit target.

7.1% is below almost all prediction by everyone. So its a surprise how badly it fell. With credit conditions tightening further, I think the April-Jun growth of 8+% was the peak. Its down from here.

Meanwhile bankrupt Netas have exceeded full year target of budget deficit by Oct 2018. 

Last year they exceeded by January. This year by December. Meanwhile economy is slowing as interest rates rise and credit tightens. Yet the lawyer Jaitley keeps saying they will stick to deficit target and reduce. I think he is lying and desperate.

With elections this december for states, if Modi weakens it will create panic and very vulnerable for rupee with economy slowing and Govt. ready to breach deficit.

We should see some big fall in stocks if Modi weakens which I think he will in December. Then a rebound early next year followed by a bigger fall in general elections. Stocks will get support from Rupee fall. Lets see.

December begins. What's ahead.

November was a month of rebound from October lows. But it could not cross Oct begin price of 10930 when sell off began.

Monday Dec 3rd shows a buy trend but not sure if it will reverse. So careful.
The week is softly peaking and there is high chance of going down. Buy has peaked and sell is strong reversal down.
Month December still shows a sell continue trend. It is still within October range.

A put option from Monday for Dec at current price may be good. Will buy some.

1. JPAssociat is an immediate sell, may recover somewhat by end of month.

2.Cosmofilms has a sell trend but not major. Need to watch qtrly support at 218. If it holds, then check next qtr signal and might buy,

3. Navkarcorp reached a temp low at weekly, monthly level and qtrly too. But it broke below qtryly low already. It may be bottoming, but need a buy signal which I can't see yet.

4. HMVL shows templow at buy and sell trend at month and qtr. There is a buy at weekly. It might be turning around but no confirmation yet. Wait!

5. TCS doesn't show any immediate sell but has weekness at month and qtr. So be careful for December.

6. HDFCBank shows some immediate weakness but not so bad for month but has a weak trend by end of december. So caution. It is amazing how strong hdfcbank rebound from oct lows have been. But it didn't break above qtrly highs.

7. Deepind is a sell soon, weekly strong buy weakening and sell temp high. Monthly hold but range can down upto 99. There is a turn around sign so may be a good buy on deep correction. This means oil price will recover? Lets see.

8. Dhampursug is at a crossroad. Monthly buy has weakening and sell temp high. Daily and weekly have a sell. Middle support at 120. There is a reversal of trend but will watch how much down it can fall now in correction.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Nov28th What's happening

It seems my monthend sell off came true last week but not to the extent I had hoped. This week nifty is rebounding.

I sold one of my put options at 10700 with a 25% profit. Missed selling last week when it was 100% profit. Also lost the put options placed at 10100 towards begin of month. Lesson learnt it even when we know of a sell off coming, wait for the buys to weak before buying a put option.

As of now Nifty is rebounding. But don't see any major buy trend yet anywhere. I am guessing this will make a major sell off post Dec 12th after election results are out.

Depending on how month of Nov. closes, will buy  december put option is it looks fine.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Monday Nov 26th

NSE shows a continuing sell. I don't see it turning around at least for a day. On weekly level the buy strength is almost at peak so shows weak buy. With November being a sell and it began at 10386, I think sell will prevail on Next week beginning on 26th. Lets see.

1. DeepInd is another temporary high at end of this week. Shows fall by next week. But is a hold on Monday.
2. DHampurSug is soft peaking at weekly although Monday shows a reluctant push with not much strength. Month began at 158 with weak buy, it may end below 158 and by end of quarter deep lows. But we need to take it slowly and see how it develops.
3. Balrampurchin shows a sharp down on next week. Monday itself is a sell. November began at 107 with weak buy and its already below that. This too might see sharp down to december.
4. HMVL is a sell on Monday and week shows weak too. HMVL was a temporary low on November start and October Start at 129 and 148 respectively and today it is 127 below those two. It will be interesting to see the lower levels penetrate to a deep selling or higher levels hold and rise by december early. I don't see a change in weak trend yet. Although I foolishly bought some based on monthly trends.
5. Cosmofilm seems stabilizing so far. Has a weakness, not major to next week. Month began at 255 but buy trend was broken as we are at 226. But Oct end of 218 should hold. If it does, we will see how december looks.
6. JPassociat shows weakness monday and on week. We could see lows to 6.6 and 6.4. Don't see trend change yet.
7. TCS shows hold on monday but weekly level shows some weakness. No major trend break yet. Monthly and Oct sell has come true, down from 1938 and 2183 respectively and now at 1812. Does this show rupee will keep gaining strength? Interesting.
8. COalIndia is a hold on Monday and may see some positive next week and like predicted before to sell, it is breaking down below and may fall further.
9. Hindustanlevel is a sell. Weekly sell has become true, we might see sharp sell below 1621.
10. GodrejInd is soft peaking at daily.
11. HDFCBank temp low of Nov from 1911 came true at 2005 now. But there is trend change coming. It is just below Oct price 2006 where there is a strong sell coming and december about to start. Its a sell.
12. Navkarcorp has a showing a turn around at week with Monday sell. Not strong buy yet.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Indian Airlines in trouble -- bankruptcy, defaults loom

Looks like Indian Airlines from Govt. to private are all in trouble and broke. Jet Airways will probably go bankrupt, can't may salaries, fly planes and Govt. has asked Tatas to buy it.

Indigo reported loss and Spice Jet and others in hard time too.

And lets not talk about perpetual parasite and Babu Airline AirIndia.

The biggest and latest trouble is sky high taxes our Delhi Netas charge on fuel. When oil prices collapsed in 2014, Netas and Babus who were all about "market price is good", decided steal that price gain from consumers and instead hiked fuel taxes greatly for Govt. Budget. Now that price has recovered and rupee has fallen too(which our Delhi netas deeply wanted), consumers including airlines in deep trouble and want tax cuts but the Govt. is already bankrupt and can't cut. So its a stalemate.

Its so bad now they can't even pay fuel bills and want unsecured credit from Govt. owned oil companies. Here.

The question as I said before is who goes bankrupt first. The airlines first or Govt. and Airlines together. I bet is on second one.

Nov 21st, what's ahead

Nifty shows strong negative. As predicted before market open yesterday Nifty turned downs strongly and had sustained selling.

Nov 21st should be a strong sell as well.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Nov19th and the week ahead.

After a very positive Monday, Nifty has soft Peaked and is turning down. That would match the monthly sell predicted at begin of Nov.
I bought some put options early on which are at loss. Might recover money if this goes well. Probably no profit. Need to wait a little when Buys are done or peaked when buying put option.

1. GVKPIL sell reversal.
2. Coalindia hold for today but a weekly sell.
3. Hindustan Unilevel a sell.
4. ITC localized buy today but otherwise sell all levels.
5. Asian paints is sell.
6. Lupin hold today but has multiday sell.
7. Rallis some positive showing. Weakness at monthly.
8. TCS sell.
9. HMVL may be up today but is weekly sell. Will be time to buy in near future but not yet.
10. L&T Infotech hold today but sell is at longer term.
11. ICICIPruli localized sell. Buy at longer term. Don;t buy yet.
12. Tatamotors check.----
13. Cosmofilms hold today and weekly sell but longer buy. Not buy yet.
14. SBI sell.
16. Dhamputsug hold. Balrampurchin is a sell. Both Sugar stocks may be turning down by end of month.
17. Aban offshore, Deepind and GMR sell.
18. JPAssociat hold.
19. HDFCBank buy, but shd fall more by year end.
20. Recltd localized sell.
21. Yesbank weak.
22. Starpaper sell.
23. Navkarcorp hold.
24. Baja Finance, Ashok Leyland hold.
25. Hero motors is sell.
26. GreavesCotton sell.